Commentary on weather, climate, and science from a young meteorologist.
There will be an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms today and tonight across western Oklahoma, western north Texas, and the eastern Texas Panhandle ahead of a developing area of low pressure. Morning upper-air analyses show a powerful 115-knot jet stream beginning to spread into the southern high plains. The exit region associated with this jet streak will provide for strong rising motion aided by strong cyclonic vorticity advection at 500 mb associated with an amplifying trough over the Desert Southwest. Deep moisture transport from the Pacific as well as from the Gulf of Mexico will provide ample moisture for precipitation development. At the surface, a strong Pacific cold front will surge east into the threat area. Thunderstorms are expected to begin developing during the late afternoon hours across the eastern Texas Panhandle. Given the strong wind shear in place, as well as deep moisture, thunderstorms will likely become severe with hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes being the main threats. Heading into the evening hours, thunderstorms are expected to merge into a strong squall line that will push eastwards into central Oklahoma, with the primary severe threat transitioning to damaging winds, where some wind gusts in excess of 80 MPH will be possible. A few tornadoes will also remain possible. Interests in southern Nebraska, central Kansas, central and western Oklahoma, north Texas, and the Texas Panhandle are advised to keep a close eye on the weather today. This severe weather threat will shift south and east into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday.
|Weather Maps, valid 1200 UTC 11/16/2015|
|250 mb||500 mb|
|700 mb||850 mb|
Maps created with Digital Atmosphere Workstation except where otherwise noted.
|Tropical Depression||Tropical Storm||Hurricane||Major Hurricane|
|less than 39 MPH||39-73 MPH||74-110 MPH||greater than 110 MPH|
|less than 34 knots||34-63 knots||64-95 knots||greater than 95 knots|
|less than 63 kph||63-118 kph||119-177 kph||greater than 177 kph|
|Storm Name||Maximum Winds||Minimum Pressure|
|Ana (5/8-12)||60 MPH||998 mb|
|Bill (6/15-17)||60 MPH||997 mb|
|Claudette (7/13-15)||50 MPH||1004 mb|
|Danny (8/19-24)||115 MPH||974 mb|
|Erika (8/25-29)||50 MPH||1001 mb|
|Fred (8/30-9/6)||85 MPH||986 mb|
|Grace (9/5-9/9)||50 MPH||1010 mb|
|Henri (9/7-9/11)||40 MPH||1008 mb|
|Ida (9/18-27)||50 MPH||1003 mb|
|Joaquin (9/28-10/8)||155 MPH||931 mb|