10/21/2017: Enhanced Risk for Severe Weather

10/21/2017: Enhanced Risk for Severe Weather

Since Wednesday morning, the Storm Prediction Center has been highlighting a potential for severe weather across much of Oklahoma and parts of North Texas. Since Thursday morning, SPC has had an “Enhanced” risk across these same areas, with today’s Day One Convective Outlook continuing to show the Enhanced risk. Taking a look at morning observations, in the upper levels, a highly amplified trough is noted across the Rocky Mountains. The absolute vorticity maximum associated with this trough is over Northwestern…

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9/12/2017: Heat returning to Texas

9/12/2017: Heat returning to Texas

Main surface feature of interest this morning in the region is the remnant low of Hurricane Irma now positioned over the Tennessee Valley. Some high clouds from Irma are actually spreading over Northeast Texas this morning, but besides these high clouds, Irma will not bring much in terms of sensible impacts to Texas. Otherwise, surface observations show another mild morning with 60s across interior Texas, and 70s along the Gulf Coast. At the upper-levels, this morning’s 500 mb analysis shows…

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09/05/2017: First Fall Cold Front

09/05/2017: First Fall Cold Front

It has been a while (quite a while) since I have written in this blog, but I am going to try to get back into the swing of things. The main weather story here in the Lone Star State right now (other than the recovery from Hurricane Harvey) is the first fall cold front that is now passing through the state. As I write this, DFW Airport is sitting at a lovely 75/52 (i.e. temperature/dewpoint for the uninitiated) with north-northeasterly…

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Weather Discussion for 03/21/2017

Weather Discussion for 03/21/2017

On social media (i.e. “Weather Twitter”), there has been a lot of discussion this morning regarding several potential upcoming severe episodes. Today, rather than my usual style blog post, I was going to take a look at a few of these upcoming potential setups. Before we proceed: this is a medium to long range forecast. Take this with a tiny grain of salt. All usual forecast disclaimers and “this is my own personal opinion” disclaimers apply now as they always…

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Weather Discussion for 03/20/2017

Weather Discussion for 03/20/2017

Analysis: Upper-air charts show a stout ridge in place over the South-Central United States this morning, which should keep our weather dry for the next few days. At the surface, a weak surface low is noted near Wichita, KS, with a dryline extending southwest across western Oklahoma and into the Texas Panhandle. Temperatures are in the mid to upper 60s east of the dryline, with temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s behind the dryline. These cooler temperatures are…

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Weather Discussion for 02/28/2017

Weather Discussion for 02/28/2017

Yesterday: This time yesterday, isolated, but severe thunderstorms were already underway across parts of North Texas. By the end of the day, there were 17 hail reports across North Texas, most of which came from one supercell that tracked across Johnson, Ellis, Kaufman, and Van Zandt Counties. Another storm that developed over Collin County produced hail in Frisco. Analysis:¬†Surface analysis this morning shows a surface low near Lincoln, NE, with an associated cold front extending to the southwest across the…

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Weather Discussion for 02/27/2017

Weather Discussion for 02/27/2017

Analysis: Radar this morning shows a few thunderstorms south and southwest of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. One of these thunderstorms (over Johnson and Ellis Counties) has even become severe, prompting a Severe Thunderstorm Warning. These thunderstorms are developing in a warm-air advection regime that is in place across the eastern two-thirds of Texas ahead of a dryline stretched roughly along a line from Childress to Fort Stockton. The nose of a 100+ knot jet streak overspreading the region is assisting…

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Weather Discussion for 02/24/2017

Weather Discussion for 02/24/2017

Analysis: After record warm heat yesterday where many places in Texas hit 90s, much cooler temperatures are spreading into the region. A cold front this morning is analyzed roughly from Paris to San Angelo. Behind this cold front, temperatures are in the 40s with even some 30s noted in the Texas Panhandle. Winds are also quite elevated, with sustained winds of 15-25 knots behind the front. This cold front should continue to make its way across the state through today,…

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Weather Discussion for 02/23/2017

Weather Discussion for 02/23/2017

Analysis: A strong surface low continues to develop over the Southern Plains in response to an upper-level trough digging into the Central Rockies. This has led to strong southerly to southwesterly flow across Texas this afternoon. As a result, temperatures have soared into the mid 80s across much of North, Central, and West Texas. As of this writing, it is already 86 F at¬†both Stephenville and Graham, and with several hours of solar heating still to go, it is likely…

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Weather Discussion for 02/21/2017

Weather Discussion for 02/21/2017

Analysis: A cold front is pushing through Texas this morning, bringing cooler and drier conditions in its wake. Walking outside this morning here in the Metroplex, it felt almost fall-like with temperatures in the upper 50s along with a breezy northwesterly wind. Needless to say, it feels quite lovely after all the humidity! At any rate, this cold front should continue to push across the state the rest of this morning and early afternoon. The cold front passage will be…

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