Commentary on weather, climate, and science from a young meteorologist.

Website News

  • 10/21 - After a good bit of time thinking about it, I have decided to retire from the political prediction business. I will still informally discuss it on Twitter to some degree as it still interests me, but I no longer really have the time, energy, or drive to work on it in a way that would be worth writing extensively about. Yes, some of my recent predictions (2014 Midterms, 2015 U.K. election, 2015 Canada election) were not good, but I am not "giving up". My motivation here has been dropping for a while. Going forth, expect the focus of this website to return to why it was started all those years ago: weather! This is what I'm good at. This is what I spent 6.5 years of my life in school studying, and this is what I hope to continue doing for the rest of my life. To all of those that read my Politimetrics blog over the years, thank you. I will keep the blog up for archival reasons, and may post in it very periodically.

Latest Weather Summary

11/16/2015 (9:09 AM CST)

There will be an enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms today and tonight across western Oklahoma, western north Texas, and the eastern Texas Panhandle ahead of a developing area of low pressure. Morning upper-air analyses show a powerful 115-knot jet stream beginning to spread into the southern high plains. The exit region associated with this jet streak will provide for strong rising motion aided by strong cyclonic vorticity advection at 500 mb associated with an amplifying trough over the Desert Southwest. Deep moisture transport from the Pacific as well as from the Gulf of Mexico will provide ample moisture for precipitation development. At the surface, a strong Pacific cold front will surge east into the threat area. Thunderstorms are expected to begin developing during the late afternoon hours across the eastern Texas Panhandle. Given the strong wind shear in place, as well as deep moisture, thunderstorms will likely become severe with hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes being the main threats. Heading into the evening hours, thunderstorms are expected to merge into a strong squall line that will push eastwards into central Oklahoma, with the primary severe threat transitioning to damaging winds, where some wind gusts in excess of 80 MPH will be possible. A few tornadoes will also remain possible. Interests in southern Nebraska, central Kansas, central and western Oklahoma, north Texas, and the Texas Panhandle are advised to keep a close eye on the weather today. This severe weather threat will shift south and east into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday.

Weather Maps, valid 1200 UTC 11/16/2015
250 mb500 mb
700 mb850 mb

Maps created with Digital Atmosphere Workstation except where otherwise noted.

Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity

Tropical DepressionTropical StormHurricaneMajor Hurricane
less than 39 MPH39-73 MPH74-110 MPHgreater than 110 MPH
less than 34 knots34-63 knots64-95 knotsgreater than 95 knots
less than 63 kph63-118 kph119-177 kphgreater than 177 kph

Storm NameMaximum WindsMinimum Pressure
Ana (5/8-12)60 MPH998 mb
Bill (6/15-17)60 MPH997 mb
Claudette (7/13-15)50 MPH1004 mb
Danny (8/19-24)115 MPH974 mb
Erika (8/25-29)50 MPH1001 mb
Fred (8/30-9/6)85 MPH986 mb
Grace (9/5-9/9)50 MPH1010 mb
Henri (9/7-9/11)40 MPH1008 mb
Ida (9/18-27)50 MPH1003 mb
Joaquin (9/28-10/8)155 MPH931 mb