Week of 9/17/18: Weather expected to remain quiet.

Week of 9/17/18: Weather expected to remain quiet.

It looks like a fairly quiet week is expected for Texas for most of the week. The only stories will be the continued minor to moderate flooding along the Nueces and Frio River in South Texas, and then the daily chances for scattered thunderstorms across much of the state.

Starting with the river flooding, the Nueces River near Tilden (McMullen County) is in moderate flood stage, and is expected to remain at moderate stage through the rest of the week, cresting this weekend. This flooding is the result of last week’s heavy rains across South Texas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast for this area through the rest of this week, with another 1-2 inches of rain likely for much of the Lower Rio Grande Valley.

Looking at the forecast for the week, it looks like we’ll continue to see mostly “garden variety” thunderstorms across much of the state as warm, humid air remains in place across the region. Upper-level forcing will be limited, which will prevent much in the way of widespread heavy rainfall or severe weather, but locally heavy rainfall will be possible. The longer-range models do not show any big cold fronts making it to the state in the next seven days, but temperatures may moderate later in the week. The GFS Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) model guidance seems to indicate that the upper-level ridge responsible for the hotter weather right now will shift to the east and weaken its hold on Texas later in the week. While we likely still would not get a strong cold front, or even strong upper-level troughing, the placement of the ridge may allow for an increase in moisture, and thus enhanced precipitation chances. These enhanced precipitation chances and cloud cover should at least allow temperatures to moderate, but it seems we still have a ways to go until we get the first true taste of fall in Texas.

GEFS 500 mb heights and anomalies valid 0000 UTC Friday, September 21. Image source: Pivotal Weather.


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