Analysis: Radar this morning shows a few thunderstorms south and southwest of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. One of these thunderstorms (over Johnson and Ellis Counties) has even become severe, prompting a Severe Thunderstorm Warning. These thunderstorms are developing in a warm-air advection regime that is in place across the eastern two-thirds of Texas ahead of a dryline stretched roughly along a line from Childress to Fort Stockton. The nose of a 100+ knot jet streak overspreading the region is assisting in ascent across the area.
Forecast: The Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk covering North and Northeast Texas. Damaging winds and large hail are expected to be the main hazards, with a few tornadoes also possible. Continued warm air advection through the rest of the morning and afternoon should lead to temperatures rising into the mid to upper 70s, and dewpoints into the upper 60s. This will lead to mixed-layer CAPE values of over 2,000 J/kg over and east of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex by early afternoon. While deep layer shear will not be super strong, it should be around or slightly above 40 knots which should be enough to support a few supercells this afternoon and evening across the slight risk area.
Another round of severe weather is expected tomorrow as well, though the greatest threat is forecast to be over Arkansas and Southern Missouri. Northeast Texas however does fall into the slight risk area, with a marginal risk area extending as far southwest as Waco. A few supercells capable of large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes will be possible. Beyond Tuesday, cooler and drier weather is expected following a frontal passage, with the next chance of rain not coming until the weekend, with the greatest rain chances expected over South Texas.